The Changing of the Guard. O Render da Guarda
«(…) According to projections by
Goldman Sachs, the three largest economies in the world by 2050 will be China,
followed by a closely matched America and India some way behind, and then
Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Indonesia. Only two European countries feature in
the top ten, namely the UK and Germany in ninth and tenth place respectively.
Of the present G7, only four appear in the top ten. In similar forecasts,
Pricew ater house Coopers suggest that the Brazilian economy could be larger
than Japan’s, and that the Russian, Mexican and Indonesian economies could each
be bigger than the German, French and UK economies by 2050. If these
projections, or something similar, are borne out in practice, then during the
next four decades the world will come to look like a very different place
indeed.
Such
a scenario was far from people’s minds in 2001. Following 9/11, the United
States not only saw itself as the sole superpower but attempted to establish a
new global role which refl ected that pre-eminence. The neo-conservative think-tank
Project for the New American Century, established in 1997 by, amongst others,
Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz, adopted a statement of
principles which articulated the new doctrine and helped prepare the ground for
the Bush administration: As the 20th century draws to a close, the United
States stands as the world’s preeminent power. Having led the West to victory
in the Cold War, America faces na opportunity and a challenge: Does the United
States have the vision to build upon the achievements of past decades? Does the
United States have the resolve to shape a new century favorable to American
principles and interests?
In
2004 the infl uential neo-conservative Charles Krauthammer wrote:
On
December 26, 1991, the Soviet Union died and something new was born, something utterly
new, a unipolar world dominated by a single superpower unchecked by any rival
and with decisive reach in every corner of the globe. This is a staggering development
in history, not seen since the fall of Rome.
The new century dawned with the world deeply
aware of and preoccupied by the prospect of what appeared to be overwhelming
American power. The neo-conservatives chose to interpret the world through the
prism of the defeat of the Soviet Union and the overwhelming military
superiority enjoyed by the United States, rather than in terms of the
underlying trend towards economic multipolarity, which was downplayed. The new
doctrine placed a premium on the importance of the United States maintaining a
huge militar lead over other countries in order to deter potential rivals, and
on the US pursuing its own interests rather than being constrained either by
its allies or international agreements.In the post-Cold War era, US military
expenditure was almost as great as that of all the other nations of the world
combined: never in the history of the human race has the military inequality between
one nation and all others been so great. The Bush presidency’s foreign policy
marked an important shift compared with that of previous administrations: the
war on terror became the new imperative, America’s relations with Western
Europe were accorded reduced signifi cance, the principle of national
sovereignty was denigrated and that of regime-change affi rmed, culminating in
the invasion of Iraq. Far from the United States presiding over a reshaping of
global affairs, however, it rapidly found itself beleaguered in Iraq and
enjoying less global support than at any time since 1945. The exercise of
overwhelming military power proved of little effect in Iraq but served to
squander the reserves of soft power, in Joseph S. Nye’s words, the
attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals and policies, that
the United States had accumulated since 1945. Failing to comprehend the signifi
cance of deeper economic trends, as well as misreading the situation in Iraq,
the Bush administration overestimated American power and thereby overplayed its
hand, with the consequence that its policies had exactly the opposite effect to
that which had been intended: instead of enhancing the US’s position in the
world, Bush’s foreign policy seriously weakened it. The neo-conservative
position represented a catastrophic misreading of history». In Martin
Jacques, Quando a China Mandar no Mundo, 2009, 2012, Temas e Debates, Círculo
de Leitores, ISBN 978-989-644-196-8, Penguin Books, ISBN 978-0-713-992-540.
Cortesia de TeDebates/CdeLeitores/PenguinB/JDACT
JDACT, Martin Jacques, Literatura, Economia, China, Conhecimento,
